Moneyline Betting Explained: How It Works, Payouts, and Smart Strategies
Moneyline betting is the most straightforward way to wager on sports — you’re simply backing the team or athlete you believe will win. There’s no spread to cover and no total to beat; if your pick wins, you cash your ticket. Some sports also offer a three-way moneyline, where a draw is priced as its own outcome.
Moneyline vs Point Spread
Moneyline: Focuses only on the winner. You pay for the favorite’s higher probability or enjoy a bigger payout if the underdog pulls the upset.
Point Spread: Requires the favorite to win by a set margin (e.g., −6.5) or lets the underdog lose by fewer points or win outright.
Moneyline vs Totals (Over/Under)
Totals bets care only about combined points/goals/runs. The moneyline is about one thing: who wins.
Understanding Moneyline Odds
Sportsbooks post prices in three main formats:
| Format | Example | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| American | −120 / +150 | Standard in the U.S. |
| Decimal | 1.83 / 2.50 | Popular internationally |
| Fractional | 5/6 / 3/2 | Common in the UK & Ireland |
All describe the same risk/reward, just in different styles.
Converting Odds to Implied Probability
Implied probability shows the chance an outcome represents before house margin (“vig”).
- Favorites (negative odds): |odds| ÷ (|odds| + 100)
- Underdogs (positive odds): 100 ÷ (odds + 100)
Worked examples:
| American | Decimal | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| −130 | 1.77 | 56.5% |
| +145 | 2.45 | 40.8% |
| −110 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| +250 | 3.50 | 28.6% |
Payout Examples (Stake: $100)
| American | Decimal | Win Prob. | Profit | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| −120 | 1.83 | 54.5% | $83.33 | $183.33 |
| −110 | 1.91 | 52.4% | $90.91 | $190.91 |
| +120 | 2.20 | 45.4% | $120 | $220 |
| +250 | 3.50 | 28.6% | $250 | $350 |
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.7% | $500 | $600 |
Favorites, Underdogs & “Pick’em”
- Pick’em (Even Money): When sides are evenly matched, you’ll see +100 or tiny negatives like −105.
- Favorites: Shown with a minus sign (−135). Lower payout but higher win probability.
- Underdogs: Shown with a plus sign (+170). Higher risk, but bigger reward.
Two-Way vs. Three-Way Moneylines
- Two-way: Only Team A or Team B can win (e.g., NFL).
- Three-way: Adds the draw (common in soccer & hockey).
- Draw No Bet (DNB): Refunds your stake if the match ends level, trading a lower payout for reduced risk.
When to Choose Moneyline or Spread
- Bankroll & Variance: Moneylines on heavy favorites require a larger stake but bring steadier returns. Spreads offer near-even payouts with higher variance.
- Confidence in Margin: If you’re sure a team wins but unsure by how much, the moneyline is safer.
- Value Hunting: Compare prices — a shift from −120 to −110 can change long-term results dramatically.
Line Shopping & Sportsbook Hold
Not all sportsbooks price games the same. The hold (or vig) is the margin built into odds.
Example (same game):
| Book | Price | Hold |
|---|---|---|
| A | −120 | ~4.8% |
| B | −110 | ~2.4% |
Lower hold = better value. Use multiple books (including an offshore sportsbook if allowed in your region) to maximize return.
Sport-Specific Tips
- NFL / NBA: Late injury or lineup news can swing moneylines. Watch reports before kickoff/tip-off.
- MLB: Confirm starting pitchers; odds can reset if rotations change.
- NHL: Check if odds include overtime/shootouts or just regulation.
- Soccer: Draws are common — consider DNB or “double chance.”
- Tennis & MMA: Monitor retirements, weigh-ins, and fitness of big favorites.
Step-by-Step: Placing a Moneyline Bet
- Add to your betslip, confirm, and track results.
- Set your unit size (0.5–2% of bankroll).
- Pick your market: two-way, three-way, or DNB.
- Review odds and convert to probability.
- Shop around for the best line.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Risking too much of your bankroll on one play.
- Ignoring line shopping — even small differences compound.
- Chasing every market move without reasoning.
- Overlooking context like travel, scheduling, or fatigue.
- Misreading vig/hold and betting into high margins.
Moneyline Betting FAQs
Can you parlay moneylines?
Yes — most books allow single-sport or mixed-sport parlays that include moneylines.
Can you mix spreads and moneylines in parlays?
Usually yes, unless the picks are correlated (e.g., moneyline + spread on the same side).
Why do odds differ between books?
Risk management, client behavior, and vig vary. That’s why shopping around — even at an offshore sportsbook — is essential.
Is moneyline or spread better?
Depends on your edge: moneyline suits strong but uncertain-margin favorites; spreads may give better value on competitive underdogs.
Do odds move after I bet?
They can, but your price is locked once your wager is placed.
Are moneylines offered in every sport?
Almost all major markets offer them, though formats may differ (regulation time, OT, or alternative rules).
Final Thoughts
Moneyline bets remain the cleanest entry point into sports wagering. Whether you’re new or experienced, understanding payouts, implied probability, and how to compare prices — across local or offshore sportsbooks — is key to long-term success.
Bet smart, shop for the best numbers, and always keep responsible gambling at the heart of your strategy.