• Sunday, Nov 23 — NFL Games & Predictions

    Here are key matchups and take on how they might go, based on recent form, expert picks, and betting analysis.

    Vikings @ Packers

    1. The Packers are strong favorites in this matchup, with FanDuel giving them about an 85% win probability.
    2. According to Fox Sports, Green Bay is favored by around 6.5 points.
    3. The total points line is relatively moderate (41.5), suggesting this won’t be a runaway offensive shootout.
    4. Minnesota’s defense will need to step up, especially to contain the Packers’ balanced attack.
    5. The Vikings could lean on their running game to control time of possession, but it’s unclear if that will be enough.
    6. Turnovers may be a deciding factor — if Green Bay’s QB protects the ball, they should be able to maintain control.
    7. Momentum could favor the Packers, especially at Lambeau, where home-field advantage matters.
    8. Overall, lean Packers to win, but expect a respectable showing from Minnesota rather than a blowout.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on BetOnline

    Colts @ Chiefs

    1. Dimers’ predictive model gives the Chiefs a 62% chance to win this game.
    2. According to Fox Sports, the spread is around Chiefs –3.5, reflecting a fairly close game.
    3. The total is set at 50.5, which implies an expectation of a reasonably high-scoring game.
    4. The Colts are dangerous, particularly if they can slow down the Chiefs’ offense and win on big plays.
    5. But Kansas City’s home-field advantage at Arrowhead could be a major factor in key moments.
    6. Turnovers and red-zone efficiency might swing this game: both teams are capable of quick-strike drives.
    7. If the Chiefs get their running game going and control the clock, they can limit Indianapolis’ possessions.
    8. My pick: Chiefs narrowly win, something like 25–24, based on their edge in experience and home environment.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on BetUs

    Patriots @ Bengals

    1. The Patriots are heavy favorites here, with FanDuel giving them roughly a 73% win probability.
    2. Oddsmakers have New England favored by about 7.5 points.
    3. On top of that, Fox Sports projects a 32–19 win for the Patriots.
    4. The Bengals are in a tough spot, especially if they’re dealing with injuries or inconsistency on offense.
    5. New England’s passing game (especially if they have a strong QB) should exploit Cincinnati’s weaknesses in coverage.
    6. The Patriots’ defense may be able to force some big mistakes, particularly in the red zone.
    7. Costly turnovers from the Bengals could further tilt the game in New England’s favor.
    8. Prediction: Patriots to win comfortably, expecting them to control most of the game.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on BetOnline

    Steelers @ Bears

    1. Dimers’ model gives Chicago around a 60% chance to win this matchup.
    2. According to SportsbookReview, the Bears are modest favorites at –3.
    3. Fox Sports predicts a tight score: Bears 26, Steelers 24.
    4. The Steelers’ offense can be explosive, but they may struggle to consistently finish drives against a Bears defense that shows flashes.
    5. At home, Chicago will try to control the tempo and lean on their running game to take advantage of short fields.
    6. Turnovers could again be the tipping point — if Pittsburgh gives the Bears extra possessions, it may cost them.
    7. The Bears’ special teams and situational execution could make a big difference in a tight game.
    8. Prediction: Bears win narrowly, but this is one where the Steelers are definitely in the fight until the end.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on SportsBetting

    Jets @ Ravens

    1. The Ravens are massive favorites; Dimers’ model gives them an 88% probability of winning.
    2. The spread is very steep: Baltimore –13.5, according to FanDuel.
    3. The total is 44.5, which suggests a moderate-scoring game rather than a blowout in terms of points.
    4. Opta’s model gives the Ravens a 66% win probability, highlighting both their strength at home and the Jets’ struggles.
    5. The Jets have had problems generating offense consistently, and this could be a very difficult road game for them.
    6. Baltimore’s defense may dominate, especially if the Jets enter the game with turnover issues.
    7. If the Ravens can establish the run and control the clock, they’ll limit the Jets’ opportunities.
    8. Pick: Ravens win convincingly, likely by a couple of scores given the gap in talent and consistency.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on BetOnline

    Giants @ Lions

    1. According to Dimers’ simulations, the Lions have about an 80% chance of winning this game.
    2. Fox Sports’ prediction aligns with that strength, projecting a 32–18 Lions victory.
    3. The Giants’ offense has been uneven, and they may struggle to keep pace if Detroit takes control early.
    4. The Lions, if they use their run game well, could dominate possession and wear down New York’s defense.
    5. Turnovers may be critical — the Giants will need to limit mistakes or risk letting Detroit pull away.
    6. Detroit’s home-field advantage and offensive explosiveness make them very dangerous in key drives.
    7. If the Lions’ defense can make a few big stops, they could turn this into a one-sided affair.
    8. Prediction: Lions to win comfortably, and they may cover if they execute efficiently.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on BetOnline

    Seahawks @ Titans

    1. The Seahawks are heavy favorites in this matchup, with FanDuel listing them at about –13.5.
    2. Dimers’ model gives Seattle a 91% probability of winning the game.
    3. According to Fox Sports, they project a 31–14 Seahawks win.
    4. The Titans are really struggling this season and don’t look to be in a strong position to upset a top-tier team.
    5. Seattle’s offense is potent, and they can likely exploit Tennessee’s defensive weaknesses through both air and ground.
    6. If the Seahawks get rolling early, they may force the Titans into a very one-dimensional game.
    7. The challenge for Seattle will be not letting up — they’ll want to maintain maximum intensity even if they lead big.
    8. Pick: Seahawks dominate, with a relatively comfortable win that may see them cover the spread.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on bet105

    Jaguars @ Cardinals

    1. Dimers’ model gives the Jaguars a slight edge, with a 56% win probability in this matchup.
    2. FanDuel’s line favors Jacksonville by about 2.5 points.
    3. Fox Sports predicts a 27–21 Jaguars win, suggesting a competitive but winnable game for Jacksonville.
    4. The Cardinals have been vulnerable, especially against teams that can mix up their play-calling and keep the pressure consistent.
    5. If the Jaguars lean into their strengths — like intermediate passing and a solid run — they could control the pace.
    6. Turnovers could play a key role: both teams have riskier plays, so protecting the ball will be crucial.
    7. Home-field advantage for Arizona might help, but Jacksonville’s balanced offense could neutralize it.
    8. Prediction: Jaguars win, but not by a blowout — probably a one-possession game if both teams compete well.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on bet105

    Browns @ Raiders

    1. Dimers’ model gives the Raiders about a 62% chance to win this matchup.
    2. According to FanDuel, Las Vegas is favored by roughly 3.5 points.
    3. Fox Sports projects a close score: Raiders 21, Browns 19.
    4. Both teams have had offensive struggles, but the Raiders may be slightly more efficient and capable of making fewer mistakes.
    5. The Browns’ offense could be limited if they can’t sustain drives; short fields might decide key moments.
    6. If Las Vegas gets a few big plays — possibly via the pass or special teams — they can pull ahead late.
    7. The Browns’ defense will need to make a stand in the red zone, or the Raiders could convert for touchdowns rather than field goals.
    8. Pick: Raiders to win narrowly, likely in a low-scoring, tightly contested game.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on bet105

    Eagles @ Cowboys

    1. Dimers’ simulation gives the Eagles a majority of wins (about 59% in 10,000 runs) against the Cowboys.
    2. Fox Sports predicts the Eagles to win 30–21.
    3. The Eagles have been strong on both sides of the ball; their defense especially could pressure Dallas into mistakes.
    4. Philadelphia’s offense can be explosive, and if they find a rhythm early, they might pull away.
    5. The Cowboys’ defense has had lapses this season, making them vulnerable to well-designed plays.
    6. Turnovers and big plays (especially on third down) will likely decide whether Philly extends its lead or not.
    7. Dallas may try to match Philadelphia blow for blow, but sustaining drives against a disciplined Eagles team could be difficult.
    8. Prediction: Eagles win, and they cover, using a balanced attack and reliable defense to control the game.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on bet105

    Falcons @ Saints

    1. According to Dimers’ model, the Saints have a slight edge here, with a 54% win probability.
    2. Fox Sports has the Saints as 1.5-point favorites, showing how tight this matchup is.
    3. The predicted score by Fox is 22–21, underlining how much this could come down to one or two plays.
    4. The Falcons’ offense, if efficient, could make this dangerous — especially if they control tempo with the run.
    5. However, New Orleans at home has motivation, and they could exploit Atlanta’s defensive gaps.
    6. Turnovers will be crucial: a big mistake could swing momentum in this rivalry game.
    7. Special teams and field-position battles might also play a disproportionately large role in determining the winner.
    8. Pick: Saints win narrowly, but this is a game where anything could happen — I expect a back-and-forth battle to the end.Best odds for this series are available on bet105

    Buccaneers @ Rams

    1. The Rams are heavily favored in this matchup, and many models see them winning by a comfortable margin.
    2. Fox Sports projects a 31–17 Rams victory, which suggests they see a decisive win.
    3. The Buccaneers’ offense has struggled recently, especially in converting red-zone opportunities and finishing drives.
    4. Los Angeles, on the other hand, is likely to leverage its stronger defense to control the pace and limit big plays.
    5. If the Rams can establish their run game early, they could force Tampa Bay into predictable offensive sequences.
    6. The Bucs’ defense may make some big stops, but sustaining that for four quarters could be difficult.
    7. Turnover margin could be a key factor: if LA protects the ball, they should be able to keep their lead.
    8. Prediction: Rams win comfortably, probably by a couple of touchdowns, unless Tampa Bay finds something out of left field.
    9. Best odds for this series are available on bet105
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